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Tuesday, June 10, 2008

How to know / predict a Bull and a Bear Markets

How to know / predict a Bull and a Bear Markets

To predict a Bull and a Bear Markets, Check for…

  • Weekly New lows.
  • 12 month moving average of top 500 companies.
  • If the stocks are loosing or gaining 7-10% with in week or so.


What you need to do Buy/Sell during these Bull and a Bear Markets?

  • First look at the market and then look at the company.

A bull market is one in which prices of a certain group of securities are rising or are expected to rise. A bear market is an opposite of bull market

A bullish market is often accompanied by a sudden increase in demand for securities and smaller supplies of the same securities. This is because more and more investors are willing to buy securities while fewer wish to sell. This will generally push the prices higher. The very opposite is true in a bearish market.

Stock symbol and Trading Strategies

Stock symbol and Trading Strategies

All you have to think

  1. How would I deal in baring losses.
  2. Try to see whether it is a Bull market or a Bear Market.
  3. Do Technical Analysis, such as
  • Price Action
  • Bar Chats
  • Daily closing, weekly closing, Monthly closing
  • Moving Averages, Gap Analysis
4. Timings and Technical analysis

Trading holidays for NSE, BSE in 2008 (sessions off)

List of holidays / trading sessions off in BSE/NSE in 2008

The following are the list of holidays of stock exchanges NSE and BSE (India) to be observed in 2008.

Mahashivratri --> 06-Mar-08
Id-E-Milad --> 20-Mar-08
Good Friday, Holi --> 21-Mar-08
Ambedkar Jayanti --> 14-Apr-08
Mahavir Jayanti --> 18-Apr-08
Maharashtra Day --> 01-May-08
Buddha Purnima --> 19-May-08
Independence Day --> 15-Aug-08
Ganesh Chathurthi --> 03-Sep-08
Ramzan Id, Gandhi Jayanti --> 02-Oct-08
Dasera --> 09-Oct-08
Diwali (Laxmi Pujan) --> 28-Oct-08
Diwali ( Bhaubeez) --> 30-Oct-08
Gurunanak Jayanti --> 13-Nov-08
Bakri-Id --> 09-Dec-08
Christmas --> 25-Dec-08

In total there are 16 holidays for NSE, BSE in 2008. Trading suspended during these days in NSE and BSE.

Best time to buy Mutual Funds and Shares

NSE, BSE and world stock markets are down for the last 4-5 days and I think it best time to Buy Mutual Funds and Shares.

Most common stocks::
Abb, Bharti, Bhel, Cairn, Cipla, Dlf, Gmr, Hdfc, Hfcl, Hindalco, Icici, Icici Bank, Idbi, Idea, Idfc, Ifci, Indiabulls, Infosys, Ispat, Itc, Ivrcl, Lanco, Larsen, Mindtree, Nagarjuna, Niit, Ntpc, Omaxe, Ongc, Petronet, Praj, Rel, Reliance, Reliance Natural, reliance petro


Best Mutual Funds As on : June 2008

DSP-ML India T.I.G.E.R -RP (G)

DSP-ML Top 100 Equity - RP (G)

DWS Alpha Equity (G)

DWS Inv Opp. Fund (G)

HSBC Equity Fund (G)

ICICI Pru Infrastructure (G)

IDFC Premier Equity (G)

Kotak Opportunities Fund (G)

Principal Global Oppor (G)

Reliance RSF - Equity

Sundaram Select Focus - RP (G)

Tata Infrastructure Fund (G)

Templeton (I) Equity Income(G)

Templeton (I) Growth Fund (G)


DWS Tax Saving Fund (G)

Principal Personal Tax Saver

Tata Tax Advantage Fund-1(G)


DSP-ML Balanced Fund (G)

FT India Balanced Fund (G)

Kotak Dynamic Asset Allocation


Birla MIP II - Savings 5 (G)

Principal MIP (G)

Principal MIP - MIP Plus (G)


Birla Dynamic Bond - RP (G)

Birla Income Plus - Retail (G)

Birla Income Fund (G)

IDFC SSIF (G)

Templeton (I) ST Income (G)


ABN Amro Flexi Debt - RP (G)

HDFC High Interest - STP (G)

ING Short Term Income (G)

UTI Liquid Plus Fund - RP (G)


Kotak Floater LTP (G)

LIC MF Floating Rate Fund (G)

UTI Floating Rate - STP (G)


HDFC Cash Mgmt. Fund - SP (G)

JM Money Manager Fund -SPP (G)

LIC MF Liquid Fund (G)

LIC MF Liquid Plus Fund (G)

Stock Recommendations:: Ranbaxy

Ranbaxy has entered a strong earnings trajectory with high visibility on FTF upsides till CY14 and improving outlook for base business. Ranbaxy’s focus on settling Para IV cases and more effective operational execution supported by business development moves has started to deliver. Steady growth in emerging markets (2/3rd of sales) and recovery in US generics will drive 18% CAGR in USD revenues and 320bp expansion in EBITDA margin over CY07-09 in base business. Ranbaxy is expected to generate ~USD2.5bn gross profit from the confirmed FTF opportunities over CY08-14. Given the strong earnings outlook and significant incremental positive news flow potential, we expect Ranbaxy to get rerated. Reiterate Outperformer with SOTP-based price target of Rs610 excluding NCE R&D business value. Ranbaxy is one of our top picks in the pharma space.

FTF value unlocking begins: Ranbaxy has among the best Para IV pipelines in the business with 18 potential FTF Para IVs. Based on visibility on eight of these FTFs, Ranbaxy will have 6-month exclusivity on at least one >$1bn sales molecule each year (barring 2013) from CY08-14 along with Nexium settlement revenues that will accrue over CY09-14. Ranbaxy is expected to generate ~$2.5bn of gross profit from this opportunity which, in turn, can create multiple new growth engines for the company.

Base business; gradual but steady progress: Driven by recovery in US generics market (20% growth in CY07, 17% CAGR over CY07-10E) and strong growth momentum in non-US/ EU markets (21% CAGR in CY07-10E). Ranbaxy’s early entry in newer markets of Canada, Japan, Nigeria, Mexico, etc is beginning to pay off. Multiple sales growth initiatives undertaken recently will accelerate the momentum.

Golden phase; stock to get rerated: We believe the market will begin to view FTF upsides as an integral component of Ranbaxy’s business model and reward the strong multi-year earnings growth visibility. Exclusivity earnings flow will also enable Ranbaxy to further strengthen its base business. Demerger of the NCE R&D business will also trigger value unlocking. Ranbaxy is one of our top picks in the space.

Stock Recommendations:: Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra (L&T, M&M)

Larsen & Toubro
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs4,044
Current market price: Rs2,882

Performance beats expectations

Result highlights

  • The Q4FY2008 results of Larsen and Toubro (L&T) are ahead of our expectations on both top line and profitability fronts.
  • The stand-alone top line saw a strong growth of 35.5% to Rs8,466.9 crore, ahead of our expectations. The growth was primarily driven by the stellar performance of the engineering and construction (E&C) division, which grew by 38.2%.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 20 basis points year on year (yoy) and by 250 basis points sequentially to 13.2%. Looking at the segmentals, the E&C division reported an excellent margin growth as the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin improved by 130 basis points yoy to 15%. Consequently, the overall operating profit grew by 38.1% to Rs1,118.1 crore.
  • A higher other income and a stable depreciation charge led to a 25.5% growth in the adjusted profit. The reported profit rose by 38% to Rs966.8 crore after taking into account an exceptional item of Rs87.23 crore relating to the gain on the sale of a stake in a group company.
  • L&T has also decided to issue bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1 subject to the approval of the shareholders.
  • The management maintains its bullish outlook and stands by its earlier guidance of maintaining a 30-35% top line growth in the next couple of years. The demand scenario remains bullish and the company is hopeful of maintaining its margins going forward as well.
  • We have realigned our consolidated earnings per share (EPS) for FY2009 and FY2010 to factor in the performance of the key subsidiaries and the company's (L&T) stake sale in the RMC business and in HPL Cogen. Our revised EPS for FY2009E and FY2010E stands at Rs110.5 and Rs150.1 per share respectively.
  • L&T's sound execution track record and strong order book position as well as the excellent performance of its subsidiaries enforce our faith in the company. We value the core business of L&T at 25x FY2010E earnings, or Rs3,038 per share. We value the subsidiaries at Rs1,006 per share of L&T. At the current market price of Rs2,882, the stock is trading at 19.2x its FY2010E consolidated earnings. We recommend a Buy on the stock with our sum-of-the-parts based price target of Rs4,044.

Mahindra & Mahindra
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs800
Current market price: Rs606

Price target revised to Rs800

Result highlights

  • The Q4FY2008 results of Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) are slightly below our expectations due to higher tax expenses incurred during the quarter.
  • The stand-alone net sales grew by 14.6% year on year (yoy) to Rs3,148 crore in Q4FY2008. The operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter declined by 50 basis points to 10.9% yoy. A lower other income, and higher interest cost and income tax resulted in a 16% decline in the pre-exceptional profit after tax (PAT) to Rs207 crore. The company realised a net extraordinary income of Rs14 crore on account of the profit arising from the merger of certain subsidiaries with it and the expenses on a voluntary retirement scheme. Thanks to this, the reported PAT declined by only 13.4% to Rs221 crore from Rs255 crore in Q4FY2007.
  • On a stand-alone basis, the net sales for FY2008 grew by 14.7% to Rs11,503 crore. The operating profit rose by 8.3% to Rs1,336 crore. The adjusted PAT grew by 10.4% to Rs 938.2 crore whereas the reported PAT grew by 14.9% to Rs1,103.4 crore.
  • On a consolidated basis, the net sales for FY2008 grew by 35.2% to Rs23,775 crore. The OPM declined from 15.5% in FY2007 to 13.9% in FY2008. Consequently, the operating profit grew by only 21.6% to Rs3,308 crore. The PAT after minority interest grew by 6% to Rs1,573 crore.
  • The company has increased its capital expenditure (capex) outlay and plans to spend approximately Rs2,000 crore per year for the next three years. The funds would be utilised for setting up the new plant at Chakan, carrying out capacity expansions at the other plants, launching new products and carrying out research and development (R&D) activities.
  • We expect FY2009 to be a year of challenges for the company as during this period its sales are likely to be affected by the caution being exercised by financiers in extending credit on account of the rising delinquencies in the automotive and tractor businesses. In addition, the margins are expected to be under pressure on account of the rising commodity prices. The management hopes to cope with these challenges with its continued focus on cost control, process efficiencies and product innovations that exceed customer expectations.
  • We continue to value M&M on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method and at the current market price of Rs606, the stock discounts its standalone FY2010 earnings by 15.8x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs800.

Stock Recommendations:: Mold-Tek, Tata Motors

Mold-Tek Technologies
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs169
Current market price: Rs71

Price target revised to Rs169

Result highlights

  • Mold-Tek Technologies Ltd's (MTTL) Q4FY2008 results were in line with our expectations. The net sales increased by 15.3% year on year (yoy) to Rs26.0 crore. The KPO division contributed 15.5% to the overall revenue during the quarter. The gross revenue from the plastics division increased by 16.9% yoy to Rs23.2 crore, while the sales from the KPO division increased by 16.8% yoy to Rs4.3 crore.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) rose to 14.2% in the quarter from 13.5% during the same quarter last year on account of improved profitability of the plastics division. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 21.6% to Rs3.7 crore. The segmental profit before interest and tax (PBIT) for the plastics division increased by 60.9% to Rs1.0 crore with the margin expanding by 120 basis points to 4.4%. The PBIT for the KPO division increased by 15.1% to Rs1.9 crore.
  • The interest costs increased by 37% to Rs63 lakh, while the depreciation increased by 55.8% to Rs81 lakh. Higher other income resulted in a 22.9% increase in the profit before tax (PBT) to Rs2.6 crore. There was no provision for tax during the quarter.
  • During the quarter, the company suffered notional loss of Rs5.3 crore as on March 31, 2008 from the forex derivatives positions. Though the losses are measured on a marked-to-market basis, these losses overhung on the stock resulting in the steep correction.
  • Major rework of earlier assignments during the quarter would shift the company's focus more on improving the quality of work resulting into lower growth than our earlier estimates. We are downgrading our earnings estimates from Rs18.7 to Rs14.7 for FY2009 and from Rs25.4 to Rs19.2 for FY2010. Currently the stock is trading at 4.8x FY2009E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation with revised price target of Rs169.

Tata Motors
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs680
Current market price: Rs532

Price target revised to Rs680

Result highlights

  • Tata Motors' sales for Q4FY2008 were in line with our expectations at Rs8,750 crore, which represents a 5.8% growth. The increase in costs adversely affected the margins on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, which are down by 300 basis points to 8.7%. The operating profit declined by 21% to Rs763 crore.
  • A higher other income led to a 3% drop in the adjusted net profits to Rs560.3 crore.
  • For FY2008, the net revenues grew by 4.6% to Rs28,730 crore led by a 3.6% realisation growth, while the reported profit after tax (PAT) grew by 6% to Rs2,028.9 crore. On a consolidated basis, the net sales grew by 10.2% to Rs35,651.5 crore and the adjusted net profit declined by 2% to Rs2,097.1 crore.
  • In order to fund its Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) acquisition, the company is looking to raise Rs7,200 crore through three simultaneous but unlinked rights issues. In addition, it proposes to raise about $500/$600 million through an appropriate issue of securities in the foreign markets on terms to be decided at the time of issuance.
  • The outlook for the commercial vehicle (CV) industry appears to be weak for FY2009 onwards in view of the tight financing situation and higher fuel prices. In the passenger vehicle (PV) segment, quite a few launches are slated, but most of them with be in the second half of FY2009, the full impact of which would get reflected in FY2010 only.
  • We downgrade our PAT estimates for FY2009 by 2% and introduce estimates for FY2010. We have not factored in the equity dilution as well as the revenue impact of JLR acquisition in view of the incomplete details of JLR. At the current levels, the stock trades at 7.8x its FY2010E consolidated earnings and is available at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax, and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 3.8x. In view of the much higher than expected equity dilution to fund the JLR acquisition, muted business outlook, we maintain Hold on the stock with a revised price target of Rs680.

Stock Recommendations:: Opto Circuits India, Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation

Opto Circuits India
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs460
Current market price: Rs316

Results in line with estimates

Result highlights

  • Opto Circuits (Opto) has reported a top line growth of 43.1% to Rs120.5 crore for Q4FY2008 and of 86.1% to Rs468.1 crore for FY2008. The revenues are ahead of our estimates and were driven by a doubling of the invasive business and an increasing demand for the non-invasive products (sensors and patient monitors) from the regulated markets.
  • Opto's operating profit margin (OPM) shrank by 670 basis points to 29.2% in Q4FY2008 and by 350 basis points to 29.3% in FY2008, largely due to an increase in the promotional spend on the distribution of free samples. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 16.2% to Rs35.1 crore in Q4FY2008 and by 66.2% to Rs137.2 crore in FY2008.
  • Buoyed by a significant jump in the other income (on account of higher foreign exchange [forex] gains), Opto's net profit jumped by 43.5% to Rs34.8 crore in Q4FY2008 and by 80.7% to Rs132.4 crore in FY2008. The net profit reported by the company was in line with our estimate.
  • Opto has successfully closed the acquisition of US-based Criticare Systems (Criticare) for $70 million. We estimate the Criticare acquisition would generate incremental earnings of Rs1.0 per share in FY2009 and of Rs2.7 per share in FY2010.
  • In keeping with its trend of rewarding its shareholders, Opto's management has announced a 50% dividend and also decided to award seven bonus shares for every ten shares held by the existing shareholders.
  • In order to incorporate the acquisition of Criticare, we are revising our revenue estimate upwards by 30.7% for FY2009 and by 19.7% for FY2010. Our profit estimate has also been upgraded by 5.3% for FY2009 and by 1.8% for FY2010. We believe Opto's revenues will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57% to Rs1,158.9 crore in FY2010 on the back of a 30% compounded annual growth in the non-invasive business and a 67% compounded annual growth in the base invasive business of stents. We expect Criticare to grow at a 20% CAGR to $62 million in FY2010. The net profit will grow at a CAGR of 48% to Rs290.6 crore in FY2010.
  • At the current market price of Rs316, Opto is trading at attractive valuations of 15.0x FY2009E fully diluted earnings and 10.4x FY2010E fully diluted earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs460.

Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs169
Current market price: Rs100

Benefits delayed

Result highlights

  • The net sales of Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation (DFPCL) increased by 56.8% year on year (yoy) to Rs330 crore. The chemical division and the fertiliser division contributed 72% and 27% respectively to the net sales. The revenues from the chemical division increased by 48.2% yoy to Rs241.5 crore on the back of a strong contribution from isopropyl alcohol (IPA), while the sales from the fertiliser division increased by 72.3% yoy to Rs90.6 crore due to an increase in the trading volume.
  • The operating profit during the quarter grew by 38.7% yoy to Rs56.8 crore with the operating profit margin (OPM) declining by 230 basis points to 17.2%. The segmental profit before interest and tax (PBIT) for the chemical division increased by 41.8% to Rs62.4 crore with the margin declining from 27% to 25.8%. The loss in the fertiliser division reduced to Rs0.3 crore from Rs1.4 crore.
  • The interest expenses were higher by 11.6% yoy on account of the increased outstanding debt issued for new projects and capacity expansions. The depreciation charge also increased by 5.7% yoy during the quarter.
  • The adjusted profit after tax (PAT) increased by 13.1% yoy to Rs31.3 crore with the margin reducing by 370 basis points to 9.5%. The effective tax rate increased during the quarter as the company had carry forward losses last year.
  • Commencement of additional ammonia storage tank (15,000MT) at Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and new nitric acid capacity (45,000TPA) at Taloja has got delayed by over nine months till March 2009.
  • The company is still in the process of negotiating long-term gas supply contract. An improved supply of natural gas to Taloja plant would help in replacing naphtha by natural gas for steam generation. Spot liquid natural gas at around $12-14 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) would cost almost half the price of naphtha ($22 per MMBTU).
  • Setting up of the ammonium nitrate plant at Paradeep (Orissa) has got delayed due to impending approvals. Civil and construction work is complete and the orders for various equipment have been placed.
  • The company's JV with the global major Yara International is still under due diligence and is expected to get over in the next two months.
  • The company's specialty mall Ishanya, for interiors and exteriors, commenced operations during the quarter, ahead of the festive season. The company has already leased out nearly 80% of the 550,000 square feet leasable area at an average rental price of Rs46 per square foot.
  • At the current market price of Rs100, the stock is trading at 7.6x its FY2009E earnings and 5.7x its FY2010E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs169.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Reliance Power (Rpower) Bonus Shares Announced June 02, 2008

Reliance Power (Rpower) Bonus Shares Announced

Reliance Power limited (REPL) has announced bonus shares on, June 02, 2008. Reliance power will issue 3 bonus shares for every 5 shares hold by investors at the end of day June 02, 2008.

  • Reliance Power to give 3 bonus shares for every 5 held
  • Bonus Shares Record date: June 02, 2008

Please note: Some of the content in this site is from Share khan emails sent to its customers.